Agrarsektor und Osterweiterung der EU im gesamtwirtschaftlichen Kontext
Agriculture and the EU Enlargement to the East)By Martina Brockmeier, Claudia A. Herok, Petra Salamon
This paper presents the effects of EU commission's proposal (January 2002)
to include Central and Eastern European Countries (CEEC) into the EU. Based
on the multi-region general equilibrium model GTAP, we first simulate the Agenda
2000 followed by the enlargement of 7 CEECs. While the effects are only minor
in the EU-15 and third countries, the results clearly show increased production
and prices for sectors in the CEECs with low protection prior to the enlargement.
Additional implementation of direct payments further increases output, but slows
down the growth of non-agricultural output. The enlargement leads to rising
prices of the mobile factors capital and labor, whereas the price of land is
strongly influenced by the direct payments. The expenditure of EU budget hardly
varies unless direct payments and structural funds are taken into account. The
implementation of direct payments will however result in significant change
of the EU budget.
Return to table of contents